The EU’s proactive and inclusive approach to Myanmar’s crisis, amid a potential US policy shift under Trump 2.0, makes it a critical advocate for democracy, human rights, and sustainable democracy in Myanmar.
Key takeaways:
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With a possible shift toward isolationist policies under a second Trump administration, the EU must fill the leadership void, using targeted sanctions, diplomatic tools, and support for the National Unity Government (NUG) to uphold democratic efforts in Myanmar.
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The EU should recognize the NUG while linking recognition to reforms, like adopting a federal charter and ensuring inclusivity, particularly addressing the citizenship rights of marginalized groups like the Rohingya.
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The EU should strengthen efforts for military accountability through sanctions, support for international legal actions in the International Criminal Court, and collaboration with partners like ASEAN to challenge the junta and advocate for federal democracy.
The EU has taken a strong stance on Myanmar’s crisis, implementing targeted sanctions on junta leaders, an arms embargo, and restrictions on surveillance technology exports. These measures and support for civil society underscore its commitment to Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces. EU-backed initiatives, such as the LIFT (Livelihoods and Food Security Trust Fund), STEP Democracy, My Justice, Joint Peace Fund, MADE in Myanmar, and a newly launched EU Mobility Program for Myanmar with a €4.8 million grant, also reflect a comprehensive approach to fostering resilience and empowerment.
US retreat under Trump?
While coordination with the United States remains vital, isolationist policies under the incoming Trump administration could weaken US engagement, jeopardizing initiatives like the Burma Act and sanctions against military entities—and, indeed, proactive EU efforts. The Heritage Foundation, a think tank close to the Trump team, recently critiqued the Biden administration’s $45 million allocation for a “diversity and inclusion” scholarship program in Burma, labeling it an example of wasteful government spending. Additionally, Senate Republican Leader McConnell, a long-time supporter of Burma’s democracy, stepped down from his position as Senate Republican Leader.
Any decrease in US engagement with Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement would leave a significant gap in international pressure on the junta, particularly regarding issues like a return to democracy, refugee resettlement, and military accountability. However, Trump’s nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio as Secretary of State could signal hope for renewed US engagement in Myanmar, given his prior involvement in Senate actions opposing the Myanmar junta.
EU’s multilateral strategy
On the other hand, the EU does have diplomatic tools of its own. It could, for instance, increase recognition of the National Unity Government (NUG), the anti-junta government. Informal recognition of NUG representation offices by EU member states and existing NUG offices in France and the Czech Republic would have symbolic and practical significance. Symbolically, it would reaffirm the EU’s rejection of the junta’s legitimacy and support for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement. Practically, it would provide the NUG with greater access to financial aid, logistical support, and international resources. The EU could also enable the NUG to issue temporary passports to Myanmar nationals in Europe, similar to what South Korea has done. This would make it easier for Myanmar nationals to travel and study in the EU, while reducing refugee-related administrative burdens on the EU. These steps would additionally enhance the NUG’s credibility and operational capacity.
Recognition, however, must be tied to reforms, including the NUG adopting a transitional federal constitution, repealing the 1982 Citizenship Law, and ensuring full citizenship rights for marginalized groups, particularly the Rohingya. The NUG must also address atrocities committed by some affiliated groups, such as the Arakan Army’s attacks on the Rohingya. The EU’s November 2024 statement at the UN General Assembly underscored its concern over worsening human rights abuses in Myanmar, including hate speech, village destruction, and the use of civilians as human shields by both the military and the Arakan Army.
The EU’s primary responsibility, though, is to ensure accountability for the military’s human rights abuses. Continued sanctions targeting its economic networks, along with support for international efforts to prosecute those responsible for the Rohingya genocide, are essential. The EU should continue to back initiatives at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC) to ensure that perpetrators of war crimes and genocide are held accountable for their actions. The EU can also work to amplify the UN-led Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar and other human rights organizations’ efforts to document atrocities and build international momentum for accountability.
To amplify its impact, the EU must collaborate closely with international partners. Coordination with the U.S remains vital, even under the “America First” policy shift. Strengthening ties with ASEAN, despite its limitations, is equally critical. Working with regional democracy advocates like Indonesia and Malaysia, the ASEAN Chair in 2025 could help bolster multilateral pressure on Myanmar’s junta. Additionally, the EU should continue aligning with global partners like the UK to challenge the veto power of China and Russia in the UN Security Council, advocating for stronger measures against the regime. Through these efforts, the EU can enhance its role in promoting an inclusive resolution to Myanmar’s crisis, supporting federal democracy and sustainable peace in the region.
Myanmar’s struggle for democracy is at a critical crossroads. In the face of a potential US retreat, the EU’s role becomes even more pivotal. By continuing to apply diplomatic and economic pressure on Myanmar’s military junta, supporting the NUG, and advocating for human rights and inclusive governance, the EU can lead efforts to restore democracy in Myanmar. Conditional recognition of the NUG, strategic partnerships with ASEAN, and unwavering commitment to justice for victims of atrocities in ICC and ICJ will send a clear message that the international community stands with the people of Myanmar.
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